Geert Wilders’ victory within the 2023 Dutch normal election may recommend Euroscepticism is on the rise within the Netherlands. But as Nick Martin and Andre Krouwel write, the European supreme nonetheless retains robust assist amongst Dutch voters.
This text is a part of a collection on the 2024 European Parliament elections. The EUROPP weblog will even be co-hosting a panel dialogue on the elections at LSE on 6 June.
On the eve of the 2024 European Parliament elections, the attraction of the European mission to Dutch voters stays robust. Even the novel proper, the victors of final 12 months’s normal election, realise this and are firming down their anti-European rhetoric.
Beneath the slogan “Extra Netherlands. Much less EU!” the populist radical proper PVV lately launched their candidate listing for June’s election to the European Parliament. Victorious in final 12 months’s normal election and driving excessive in Dutch opinion polls, the progress of the PVV may recommend that anti-EU sentiment within the Netherlands has all of the political momentum. Nevertheless, a brand new large-scale survey of Dutch voters exhibits clearly that, quite the opposite, the principal drivers of the European mission retain the assist of a giant majority of Dutch residents.
Utilizing a big questionnaire with 65 questions spanning essentially the most salient coverage points in relation to European integration, we requested respondents to point their settlement on a five-point Likert scale (1 = absolutely disagree, 5 = absolutely agree, with a “no opinion” possibility). The solutions revealed seven coherent issue-dimensions underlying the opinions of Dutch voters on European politics.
The scale embody a bigger versus smaller position for the EU in coverage making dimension; a free motion dimension; a inexperienced, environmental dimension; a social coverage dimension; an enlargement dimension (about kind of nations being allowed to hitch); a safety dimension; and an immigration and asylum dimension. These seven dimensions can be utilized to position Dutch residents into 5 sentiment teams. Whereas two of those teams have been hostile or against key attributes of the European mission, three sentiment teams have been strongly optimistic.
European sentiment group 1: A free and social Europe is our future
The primary optimistic sentiment group sees a robust and democratic Europe as key to fixing the main issues of our instances. Members of the group need the EU to be bigger and embody extra nations. For them, the EU ought to develop extra social insurance policies and its multicultural nature is a energy.
This group strongly helps equal rights and the free motion of individuals throughout the EU-space. For them, the EU is nicely positioned to battle the air pollution, injustice and authoritarianism on the planet. This set of sentiments has essentially the most assist amongst youthful voters and the upper educated. It additionally has better resonance with Dutch girls than Dutch males. They have an inclination to vote for GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, Partij voor Dieren or VOLT.
European sentiment group 2: A powerful Europe ensures our safety
In a world of uncertainty and exterior menace from authoritarian leaders equivalent to Vladimir Putin, the second optimistic sentiment group regards the EU as central to the longer term safety of the Netherlands.
The EU ought to concentrate on constructing a robust defence to guard our prosperity and freedom, assist Ukraine towards the authoritarianism of Putin’s Russia and cease letting everybody enter the nation. The promotion of free commerce, cooperation with different democracies and elevated funding in defence by the EU are all supported by this group of Dutch voters drawn extensively from centre-right events and the right-wing populist JA21.
European sentiment group 3: European cooperation ensures our prosperity
For the third optimistic sentiment group, the cooperation throughout borders that’s fostered by the EU is important to future prosperity. Solely on the EU degree, this group believes, can efficient motion be taken to advertise commerce, defend European prospects and make sure that Europe doesn’t change into economically depending on outdoors forces and states.
This group feels that one can not clear up the main issues on the planet alone as a small nation and that you could work collectively within the EU-framework. This teams’ view of Europe enjoys widespread assist from Dutch voters throughout the political spectrum from the centre-left to the centre-right (Inexperienced-Left, PvdA, NSC, D66, VVD and VOLT).
European Sentiment group 4: Europe wants extra limits and stronger borders
The primary of the 2 detrimental sentiment teams is essentially the most clearly nativist in focus and near the PVV’s election strapline. Members of this group need stronger borders, a discount in migration and a robust concentrate on law-and-order measures. Based on this group, the Dutch political class ought to put the Netherlands first and cease worrying about democratic backsliding in Europe and different components of the world.
Curiously, these voters additionally imagine the EU ought to have social insurance policies as nicely and assist extraordinary residents, however that the EU mustn’t drive nations to deal with all newcomers the identical as natives. This set of sentiments has robust resonance amongst older Dutch voters and the supporters of the liberal VVD in addition to each new and populist events within the nation just like the PVV, BBB and NSC, in addition to supporters of the left-radical Socialist Celebration.
European sentiment group 5: Europe undermines our nationwide identification
Our second detrimental sentiment group is overtly hostile to the European supreme, relating to it as a menace to the tradition and identification of Dutch individuals. Members of this group are resolutely against any additional enlargement of the European mission and need a return of each energy and sources from Brussels to the Netherlands, in order that the burden positioned on the Dutch individuals by EU tax and regulation might be lifted. This view of Europe is distinguished amongst supporters of the less-liberal oriented right-wing events equivalent to Wilders’ PVV, Discussion board for Democracy, BBB, NSC and the orthodox Christian SGP.
Distribution of voters
Determine 1 illustrates the place the typical voter of the Dutch events contesting the European elections sits on two key dimensions – vertically on a scale from pro-EU and progressive to anti-EU and conservative, and horizontally on the financial dimension from left to proper. It exhibits a robust relationship between left-wing and pro-EU views within the prime left-hand quadrant and to right-wing and anti-EU sentiment within the backside right-hand quadrant.
Determine 1: Distribution of voters for Dutch Events by EU sentiment and ideological place
Supply: Compiled by the authors.
Clearly, essentially the most pro-EU voters are for VOLT and D66, whereas centre-left PvdA-GreenLeft Alliance and centre-right VVD and CDA voters are additionally pro-EU on common. Notably, a brand new occasion, New Social Contract – a breakaway from the CDA – adopts a comparatively related place to its authentic Christian democratic residence, albeit a bit much less pro-EU. Within the Netherlands, there’s a left-wing voter group that’s Eurosceptic and a populist proper voter bloc with much more EU-rejecting attitudes. Notice that supporters of the most important occasion – and the one driving the selection of latest prime minister, the PVV – are essentially the most anti-EU voter bloc of all.
The message for the Dutch political class and Europe
What implications do our findings have for the Dutch political class and for the nation’s position in Europe within the close to future? First, whereas there may be important proof of anti-European and populist sentiment among the many Dutch on the eve of the European elections, Dutch attitudes in direction of Europe are extra advanced than many assume. Alongside the populists sit massive and extra influential teams of Dutch voters for whom the European supreme nonetheless holds an awesome attraction.
Second, though the media offers important consideration to populist narratives concerning the EU, the Dutch will not be going to advocate for or search a “Nexit” any time quickly regardless of supporters of Geert Wilders’ PVV being essentially the most anti-EU voter bloc within the nation. Regardless of the final result is from the nation’s protracted nationwide coalition talks, the Dutch are more likely to proceed to be vital and optimistic contributors to the EU within the subsequent time period of the Parliament.
Lastly, for progressive and centre events within the Netherlands searching for to recuperate floor from populists, there may be a lot consolation to be present in our sentiment evaluation. Within the eye of the populist storm, political appeals to European cooperation, solidarity and democracy retain robust assist from most Dutch voters.
Notice: This text offers the views of the authors, not the place of EUROPP – European Politics and Coverage or the London College of Economics. Featured picture credit score: jan kranendonk / Shutterstock.com
