Inexperienced events suffered vital losses within the 2024 European Parliament elections. But as Mitya Pearson, Wolfgang Rüdig, Iakovos Makropoulos and Tomas Maltby clarify, the image was extra nuanced than the headline figures recommend, with a number of Inexperienced events both holding their place or making positive factors in contrast with 2019.
Earlier than the 2019 European Parliament elections, the setting had risen in salience amid widespread local weather protests. Inexperienced events subsequently went on to safe their finest end result at a European Parliament election, with 55 members representing the European Inexperienced Occasion elected and the Greens/European Free Alliance (EFA) parliamentary group rising from 50 to 74 MEPs.
Within the lead as much as the 2024 European Parliament elections, the Ukraine conflict and the price of residing disaster loomed massive, to some extent relegating local weather change down the agenda. A lot of the commentary forward of the elections targeted on the anticipated rise of radical proper events, that are usually hostile to local weather insurance policies. Though concern amongst EU residents concerning the setting stays excessive – round 80 per cent nonetheless take into account local weather change “a really major problem” – its salience compared to different points declined.
In spring 2019, a Eurobarometer ballot recommended that EU residents thought of local weather change to be the second most necessary difficulty. Nevertheless, by spring 2024, Europeans thought of the setting and local weather change mixed as solely the fifth most necessary difficulty, behind Ukraine, immigration, the worldwide scenario and inflation. Furthermore, essentially the most distinguished protests within the lead as much as the 2024 European Parliament elections have been demonstrations by farmers towards environmental rules in a number of European nations.
The marketing campaign
European elections are 27 particular person election campaigns that are inevitably exhausting to summarise. Nevertheless, on the European stage, the Greens participated within the Spitzenkandidaten course of, choosing Terry Reintke and Bas Eickhout as their candidates. The European Greens’ marketing campaign included a push for additional motion to guard the setting within the face of criticism of EU local weather coverage by radical proper events.
The distinction between the Greens and the unconventional proper was seen through the election debate in Maastricht in April. Eickhout argued that the perceived backlash towards the European Inexperienced Deal mirrored the truth that it’s “not full but” and “solely the start”, whereas Anders Vistisen, representing the right-wing Id and Democracy Group, said brazenly that he wouldn’t search to make sure that the EU meets it local weather targets, which he believed have been “doing just one factor: shifting jobs out of Europe”.
Extra broadly, the European Greens agreed a standard manifesto that set out positions on key points debated through the election marketing campaign. These included expressing their “undivided solidarity with and assist for Ukraine and for continued monetary and navy assist”, arguing “for the EU to relaunch political negotiations in direction of a two-state answer” within the Israel-Palestine battle, and pushing for a extra liberal method to migration.
One of many principal EU-level discussions through the marketing campaign was what the outcomes would imply for the arithmetic within the European Parliament, and whether or not – and the way – Ursula von der Leyen would possibly safe a majority for a possible second time period as EU Fee President. Reintke made clear that the European Greens would solely assist a candidate for Fee President as a part of a majority group that continued the Inexperienced Deal and didn’t embrace any of the teams to the suitable of the European Folks’s Occasion (EPP).
The Greens within the 2024 European elections
As predicted, within the 2024 election the Greens fell again from their successes through the “Inexperienced Wave” in 2019. The Greens/EFA dropped from the 74 seats they’d gained in 2019 to simply 53 seats. The liberal Renew group and the Greens/EFA group each stood out in comparison with the opposite teams within the parliament as they noticed equally massive proportion drops of their share of seats. This additionally meant that the Greens/EFA went from being the fourth largest group within the parliament to the sixth.
Determine 1: Whole seats gained by Inexperienced events and the Greens/EFA group within the European Parliament
Supply: Wolfgang Rüdig (2019); Mitya Pearson and Wolfgang Rüdig (2020); The European Union – Election Outcomes; The Greens/EFA – Our MEPs. Word: The Greens joined forces with the EFA within the European Parliament from 1999 onwards. Generally totally different sources quote barely totally different totals for the 2 teams’ whole MEPs.
Nevertheless, as Determine 1 demonstrates, when judged towards the longer historic sample of Inexperienced social gathering outcomes at European elections, 2024 appears extra respectable, with comparable totals achieved to these in 2009 and 2014. It is usually value noting that seven Inexperienced Occasion of England and Wales MEPs have been elected within the UK on the 2019 European Parliament elections, an unusually robust nationwide efficiency, so the outcomes have been inevitably going to undergo from the UK leaving the EU.
When the outcomes are break up up by nation, it’s clear that the easy narrative of Inexperienced events experiencing common setbacks throughout Europe isn’t an correct abstract of the election. As Determine 2 demonstrates, Inexperienced losses have been significantly concentrated in Germany and France. The political conditions and rightward shifts in each of those nations have attracted a lot consideration and it appears that evidently the Inexperienced events’ performances have been certain up with this.
The opposite three nations the place Inexperienced events secured fewer seats than in 2019 have been Eire (two fewer), Belgium (one fewer) and Portugal (one fewer). It is usually notable that Inexperienced events in Austria, Belgium, Germany and Eire, which have been all preventing the elections as a part of national-level governments, all registered decrease vote shares than in 2019.
Determine 2: Change in variety of Inexperienced MEPs inside particular person nations (excluding these with no change)
Word: Figures present the variety of MEPs from events affiliated to the European Inexperienced Occasion (not the Greens/EFA group). Figures from the European Parliament and outcomes reported by nationwide election companies.
In a number of nations, Inexperienced events merely maintained the identical illustration as they’d achieved in 2019. This was accompanied by eight nations the place Inexperienced events made small positive factors, most notably in Italy the place they went from zero to 3 MEPs. There are additionally some explicit nationwide success tales for Inexperienced events, together with in Denmark, the place the Socialistisk Folkeparti (Inexperienced Left) had the most important vote share, and the Netherlands, the place the Inexperienced Left coalition topped the ballot.
It’s moreover value noting that though total the Greens/EFA group misplaced MEPs, and the EPP, Conservatives and Reformists, and Id and Democracy (now successfully changed by the Patriots for Europe) teams, which should various levels been vital of EU local weather coverage, made positive factors, it doesn’t essentially observe that it was these points driving the outcomes. Polling throughout six European nations recommended voting for the populist proper was pushed far more by immigration and inflation than environmental coverage.
Outlook for the subsequent parliament
On 18 July, von der Leyen gained a majority within the parliament in assist of her second time period as European Fee President. As a part of her makes an attempt to safe their assist, it has been reported that von der Leyen assured the Greens/EFA group of her dedication to the European Inexperienced Deal. The Greens/EFA group formally introduced they’d again her within the vote, and von der Leyen’s speech on the day included some commitments on local weather coverage.
The 2019 European elections generated momentum for formidable environmental insurance policies to be adopted throughout von der Leyen’s first time period, together with the European Inexperienced Deal. Nevertheless, as quickly because it grew to become clear that the EPP had made positive factors within the 2024 election, Manfred Weber attacked the deliberate 2035 ban on new combustion engine automobiles and Thanasis Bakolas emphasised the necessity for “pragmatic” local weather insurance policies.
Though it’s extremely unlikely the Inexperienced Deal can be scrapped, the circumstances don’t look ripe for the EU to be extra formidable on the setting. It’s going to even be more difficult to totally implement the Inexperienced Deal. There may additionally be makes an attempt to delay or dismantle some particular EU environmental targets and schemes within the coming years.
But, regardless of vital setbacks in France and Germany, Inexperienced events held their place or made positive factors in a number of nations throughout Europe. They are going to subsequently proceed to play a major function in EU policymaking within the coming parliamentary session.
Word: This text provides the views of the authors, not the place of EUROPP – European Politics and Coverage or the London College of Economics. Featured picture credit score: Felix Geringswald / Shutterstock.com
